The Demise of Twitter

Social networkingThe UK-based research firm Conquest released a report  on the social networking habits of 16-24 year olds. The results of the online research conducted during January 2011, documents Facebook’s domination of social networking and YouTube’s close second place.

The Conquest research says that Facebook is the principal means of social and commercial engagement for 16-24 year old market; out-ranking telephone, email and even going out. FacebookProject Chatter” also found that regular Facebook users (91% of the sample) check their accounts over six times a day, with 30% on the site for over an hour a time. Meanwhile, YouTube is the major conduit for music browsing, consumption and sharing in this age group. In contrast, 56% of Tweeters claim their activity is dwindling with an average site visit lasting five minutes.

YouTubeConquest says that social networking for this age group, has become the central means of staying up to date and engaging with peers, showcasing oneself, ‘chatting’, ‘liking’, consuming music, videos and TV, following celebrities and brands etc. This group tends  to rely on social media to message contacts, increasingly shunning email and telephone. Conquest also spotted a disturbing trend with a significant 20% preferring to meet online than in person.

TwitterThe dominate site for browsing videos and discovering and sharing music and videos is YouTube. Conquest sees Twitter usage declining among  16-24 year olds in the future – 20% anticipate using the micro network less in the next year. 20% of Twitter users told the pollsters that they expected to use the micro-blogging site less in the next 12 months. Facebook users reported a lower expected drop-off rate of 13% after  12 months.

Fail whaleIn addition, out of the 42% of the 16-24 years olds interviewed who had used Twitter, more than half (56%) said they used it a little, or a lot less often, or never made active use of the site after visiting it. In an interview with Contagious David Penn, Conquest’s marketing director, said:

‘Facebook is used for writing on walls, sharing photos, checking what friends are doing and keeping in contact. It is the most social site of the lot, whereas Twitter is often used for following celebrities and is not really social in that sense. It is almost more of a broadcast medium than an interactive and social one.’

Mr. Penn told Brand Republic that Twitter has peaked among the younger demographic and warned it “may undergo a gradual decline echoing the fate of Myspace and Bebo in internet Siberia”.

rb-

Declining usage by 16-24 year olds and 60% of users dropping off after the first month doesn’t seem like a good way to support a Wall Street$10 Billion dollar valuation on Twitter. I agree with the Conquest study that Twitter is the least social of the social media’s. I am Twitter because others are on it, not because there is anything exciting for me.

Twitter has not done its IPO yet, maybe they know there is a problem with their business model. If their IPO flops will that be start of  Dot.Bomb 2.0?

What do you think?

Is Twitter destined for “Internet Siberia”?

Will a failed IPO cause another Dot.Bomb?

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