Tag Archive for IPv6

| February 10, 2024
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The Rising Value of IPv4 Addresses

The Rising Value of IPv4 AddressesAccording to an article at CircleID, the value of IPv4 addresses is set to increase. IPv4 is the traditional way to address devices that attach to the Internet. The world has been running out of these addresses, leading to the development of its successor, IPv6, Despite being available on the public internet since 2011, the new protocol has not been widely implemented. Only about a third of the top 1000 websites globally support it. Meanwhile, existing IPv4 networks have become more efficient in their use of IPv4, reducing the drive to implement IPv6.

Impact of COVID-19 on the IPv4 Market

The COVID-19 pandemic brought significant changes to the IPv4 market. Many firms sold off their IPv4 addresses to raise capital. The article says the IPv4 prices have risen over the past three years. Another factor driving up the price of IPv4 networks is the cloud computing giant, Amazon.

Pricing Changes by Cloud Providers

Cloud providersAWS has announced that starting February 1, 2024, they will begin charging at least $40 per IPv4 address per year. It is anticipated that other cloud giants such as Alibaba, Cloudflare, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle will follow AWS with similar pricing structures. Notably, AWS’s new cost per address is 300% higher than what Microsoft paid for Nortel’s IPv4 address range in 2011.

IPv4 Arbitrage Opportunities

Stack of moneyGiven AWS’s price exceeding $40 per address per year, the author expects businesses to purchase addresses on the open market at less than AWS’s $40 and migrate them to the cloud. This will save them some of the AWS costs. This strategy is likely to increase demand for IPv4, further contributing to their value increase.

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Organizations holding even a small pool of IPv4 addresses could monetize this asset. By implementing Network Address Translation (NAT) or transitioning to IPV6 on their internal networks, they can free up IPv4 addresses. These addresses can then be sold to networks grappling with the cost increases imposed by the cloud providers.

 

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Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.

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| December 4, 2019
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Time Is Running Out on IPv4 Are You Ready ?

ETime Is Running Out on IPv4 Are You Ready for IPv6very device that connects to the Internet needs an address to get bits delivered to it, just like your home has a street address so that FedEx, UPS or the post office can leave you packages. On the Internet, they are called IP addresses. Currently, there are 2 types of addresses on the internet – IPv4, and IPv6.

IPv4 is still used every day and has over 4.3 billion IP addresses – but that is not enough. Followers of the Bach Seat know most of the original IPv4 addresses are no longer available. In 2011 Asia ran out of IPV4 addresses, and in 2015 the U.S. ran out.

Just last week (11/25/2019) RIPE, the organization that handles IPv4 addresses for 76 countries in Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Central Asia announced that it ran out of IPv4 addresses. “We made our final /22 (1,022 address netblock) IPv4 allocation from the last remaining addresses in our available pool.”

IPv6 is a not-so-new specification, created in 1995 to replace IPv4. IPv6 has over 340 undecillion IPv6 addresses.

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Follow the moneyA tell-tale sign of a dysfunctional market is the evolution of a grey market. Followers of Bach Seat know that a grey market in IPv4 addresses has existed since 2011. IPv4 prices on the grey market can range from $11 – $33 per address, meaning the IPv4 transfer market is now worth hundreds of millions of dollars globally.

ars points out that end-users and the SMB market are largely unaffected by IPv4-address exhaustion. They can still connect to the web and do what they need to do.

barrier to entryThey predict that new Internet service providers will be the first to really feel the IPv4 exhaustion pinch. They will need IP addresses firms know-how to deal with (hint- it’s not IPv6) to hand out. According to ars this could include cloud providers such as Conga, Digital Ocean, Huddle, and Optiv who also act as Internet Service Providers.

If you are an incumbent ISP this is a good thing, for everybody else it is a significant barrier to entry for new players in either local or cloud ISP markets.

They conclude that full adoption of IPv6 and its 340 undecillion individual addresses is the way around the incumbent oligarchy.

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Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.

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| December 7, 2018
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IPv4 Update

IPv4 UpdateThe IPocalypse struck the United States in 2015 and three years later – nobody cares. The end of IPv4 was going to mean the Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) takes over the world. Well, recent updates say IPv4 is still the dominant protocol on the Internet.

IPv4 number trading between private partiesIPv4 number trading between private parties has proved to be an effective means of extending the life of IPv4 by redistributing previously allocated IPv4 numbers. Trading between private parties is very active in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific regions. This has allowed IPv4 network operators to support and extend their IP networks with excess unused supply through the IPv4 market.

Janine Goodman, Vice President and co-founder of Avenue4 LLC., a Washington DC-based IPv4 broker and advisory firm posted a 2018 Q3 update on the IPv4 market for CircleID. In the update, the author noted that during Q3 of 2018 there is still a voracious appetite for IPv4 numbers – 18 million IPv4 numbers were transferred in the quarter. There were nearly 42 million IPv4 addresses changing hands in the 2018 year to date, a 160% jump compared to 2017

will not hit the 50% mark until sometime in 2020The article states that IPv6 adoption in the U.S. (based on Google user stats) fell after the beginning of the year and has yet to recover. Ms.Goodman cites predictive models which suggest that U.S. IPv6 adoption will not hit the 50% mark until sometime in 2020. Globally, IPv6 adoption has been slow, peaking at 21.5% during weekdays and 25% during weekends. The data from Avenue4 confirms that IPv4 continues to be the dominant Internet protocol.

For those firms purchasing IPv4 addresses, the most common IP block size is the /24 (256 addresses), followed by the /16 block (65,536 numbers). Nearly 90% of those /16 blocks were transferred to large block buyers. The /17 (32,768 addresses) and /18 (16,384 addresses) are also popular as large block buyers are increasingly willing to accept a collection of smaller non-contiguous ranges from sellers.

prices are being driven up by fierce competitionBlock prices will rise over the next 6-12 months. The article reports that most block sizes are north of $17.00 / number with larger blocks reaching and occasionally exceeding $20.00 / number. Avenue4 says fierce competition among large block buyers is driving unit prices up. Until this demand is met, pricing should continue to escalate. IPv4 prices were $11.25 / address when I first wrote about Microsoft’s purchase of Nortel’s IPv4 addresses in 2011.

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The switch to IPv6 is being slowed by two factors. The first is network address translation (NAT) which has become better understood and implemented. The other is the evolution of the buying and selling of IPv4 addresses, led by firms like Avenue4 and IPv4 Brokers.

One of the knocks against moving to IPv6 is CAPEX and OPEX costs. But neither really holds water anymore. The data from Avenue4 says that firms are willing to pay over $1.3 million for a \16 block. Firms could leverage $1.3 million to update to IPv6.  IPv6 is fully built into modern operating systems and networking hardware. Buy the right devices during your regular update cycles.

Microsoft (MSFT) recently decided to embark on the tricky transition from IPv6 and IPv4 or ‘dual stack’ to IPv6-only, which Microsoft believes will solve its problems with IPv4 shortages and enable simpler network management.

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Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.

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| August 4, 2018
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Happy Birthday to IPv6

Happy Birthday to IPv6You are forgiven if you missed IPv6’s birthday (I did). The next-generation network addressing scheme turned 6 years old back in June. June 06, 2012, was World IPv6 Launch Day when everybody was supposed to permanently enable IPv6 on their networks. The results – not so good. There are global highlights but 3/4’s of internet users still regularly connect to the Intertubes over legacy IPv4.

The Internet Society rightly points out that enterprise operations tend to be the “elephant in the room” when it comes to IPv6 deployment. If only 26% of networks advertise IPv6 autonomous system prefixes, 74% do not. Most of the 3/4ths not using IPv6 are likely to be enterprise networks.

Enterprises have traditionally been reluctant to embrace IPv6 — there has been no real need to implement it, with many seeing it as an additional cost and risk with no direct use for their daily business.  Cost can include monetary assets, but also people and time

IPv6Migrating to IPv6 will be hard. The migration will involve all departments of the organization and every piece of equipment connected to the network. Then consider that the migration will be made over time and that everyone needs to be on the same page working together for the best outcome and smoothest transition.

Legacy systems can be defined basically as older systems. They likely are missing some common functionality from current technology, but still exist because they perform a key or important function for the organization just fine, thus there is no reason to replace it. However, this attitude is starting to change.

Microsoft logoLarger and more tech-savvy enterprises are forging innovative paths forward. CircleID points out Microsoft (MSFT), which made one of the first publicly announced purchases of IPv4 address space, reportedly purchasing 666,000 addresses at $11.25 per address in 2011. In a recent blog, Microsoft described the steps is taking to turn off IPv4 and become an IPv6-only company. Their description of their heavily translated IPv4 network includes phrases like “potentially fragile”, and “operationally challenging”, and about dual-stack operations, “complex”.

Outside of the enterprise space, there’s still the rest of the Internet that needs to make the migration. According to the stats in the article, the top carriers in the U.S. still carry less than half of the IPv6 traffic that the Indian ISP Reliance Jio carries. The Internet Society takes the happy view that the excuse that “no one is doing IPv6” is gone. For many people and networks, IPv6 is the new normal and is the future of Internet connectivity.

Some of the highlights for IPv6 are:

  • 237 million people in India connect over IPv6.
  • Mobile operators are adopting IPv6, some have over 80 or 90% of their devices connecting over IPv6.
  • 28% of the Alexa Top 1000 websites are IPv6-enabled.

ISOC - State of IPv6 Deployment 2018

 

National mobile networks are driving the global adoption of IPv6. Some mobile networks are taking the step to run IPv6-only to simplify network operations and cut costs. Japan and India are leaders in IPv6 adoption.

Reliance JIOThe Indian wireless carrier Reliance Jio has an 87% IPv6 rate.

In Japan, the top three wireless carriers are:

U.S. wireless carriers are deploying IPv6 also:

Many home and business users get Internet connectivity from broadband ISPs. Many broadband ISPs have deployed IPv6 on their networks. They send the majority of their traffic over IPv6 to major content providers. For example, Comcast (CMCSA), the largest broadband ISP in the U.S. is actively deploying IPv6. Per the World IPv6 Launch website, Comcast has an IPv6 deployment measurement of over 66%. Globally broadband ISPs are also deploying IPv6.

The following table from the Internet Society lists the top IPv6 carriers based on the number of users.

RankISPCountryIPv6 Users (estimated)
1Reliance JioIndia237,600,764
2ComcastUnited States36,114,435
3AT&TUnited States22,305,974
4Vodafone IndiaIndia18,368,165
5Verizon WirelessUnited States15,422,684
6Idea CellularIndia14,681,694
7Deutsche Telekom AGGermany14,261,836
8T-Mobile USAUnited States14,057,105
9KDDI CorporationJapan11.871,952
10Sky BroadbandGreat Britian11,829,610
11ClaroBrazil10,235,805
12SoftbankJapan8,613,145
13OrangeFrance7,924,119
14AT&T WirelessUnited States7,694,881
15Cox CommunicationsUnited States6,316,462
16Kabel DeutschlandGermany5,835,590
17SK TelecomKorea5,764,073
18NTT CommunicationsJapan5,596,206

 

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Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.

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| September 24, 2015
Comments Off on IPv4 IPocalypse Strikes U.S.

IPv4 IPocalypse Strikes U.S.

IPv4 IPocalypse Strikes U.S.The world is ending. the IPocalypse is upon us! As I (and a lot of other people) have been warning for a while now, North America has finally run out of new IPv4 addresses. The American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN), the group that distributes Internet addresses for North America, said Thursday it has assigned the last addresses in its IPv4 free pool.

IPv4 dates back to 1981 and only has room for 4.3 billion unique addresses. IPv6, introduced in 1999, should have enough addresses to serve Internet users for generations, according to ARIN.

No more ew IPv4 addresses
Anyone who still needs IPv4 addresses can request them from ARIN, but they won’t have any to give away unless it gets more from the global Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) or returned addresses from users who don’t need them anymore.

According to PCWorld, ARIN already runs a waiting list for requests, which they set up earlier this year.  Users can also buy IPv4 addresses on the IPv4 grey market (rb- I first reported on the IPv4 grey market in 2011) from others who don’t need them and are looking to make some money. Addresses recently were going for around US$10-$12 each, according to people who follow the transfer market.

PC World speculates that more North American addresses may go on the grey market now that ARIN has exhausted its pool of fresh ones. That event triggered a change in the organization’s rules for approving transfers: There is no longer any restriction on how often an address holder can request transfers to specified recipients.

North American is just the latest to run out of IP addresses according to the Register.

  • APNIC, which allocates addresses in Asia-Pacific, ran out of available IPv4 addresses in 2011;
  • RIPE, which oversees Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Central Asia, ran out in 2012; and
  • LACNIC, which manages Latin America and the Caribbean, ran dry in 2014.

All that’s left is AFRINIC, which oversees Africa, and is expected to run out of IPv4 addresses in 2019.

The IPv4 space globally offers 4,294,967,296 network addresses – which seemed like an awful lot back in the 1970s when the internet was coming together. Vint Cerf, father of the internet, (not Al Gore) told the Register,

When we designed the Internet 40 years ago, we did some calculations and estimated that 4.3 billion terminations ought to be enough for an experiment. Well, the experiment escaped the lab

IPv6 uses 128-bit addresses, and there are 3.4 × 1038 available – that’s 340 undecillion, although, practically speaking, 42 undecillion are usable.

Rb-
I told you so again and again and again. Maybe now that North America has run out of new IPv4 addresses, the IPv6 migration might get some attention and pick up speed. Maybe.

 

Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.

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