UK-based Juniper Research published a year-end list of predictions for the mobile and wireless industry for 2012. A copy of the report can be downloaded from Juniper Research, with registration here. Are they on-target or off-the-wall?
Recession Likely to Hit Smart Device Sales. Juniper Research says the continued recession will hurt smartphone and tablet sales. They believe tablet sales will be hurt more than “must-have” smartphones.
They say cash-strapped consumers may opt for the lower-priced tablets. This could benefit players such as Amazon (AMZN) Kindle Fire or ARCHOS (ALJXR) ARNOVA branded devices rather than an Apple (AAPL) iPad. eReaders are most likely to be the hardest hit according to the report.
2012 – The Year of the Quad-Core Processor. ASUS (2357) was the first to release Quad-Core Processor. The new chip appeared n November 2011, It ran on the Eee Pad Transformer Prime with the newly launched NVidia (NVDA) Tegra 3 chip. Qualcomm (QCOM) has also added a quad-core chip to their Snapdragon line. Juniper Research expects more to come.
Quad-core processors offer improved performance and increased battery life. The performance boost comes from being able to multi-task more efficiently. It ensures that music will keep playing smoothly while the user is playing games or taking pictures. The power savings come from being able to keep those cores at a relatively low clock speed.
Quad-core processors will allow developers to add more realistic effects, getting ever closer to the elusive console-quality experience. The Tegra 3 even allows for controller support and mirroring to a 3D TV. Javascript and Flash will also run faster allowing web developers to create more graphics and script-heavy apps and pages.
Windows 8 OS to Fuel Nokia Revival Disrupt Tablet Market. Microsoft’s (MSFT) next OS will be compatible with both Intel and ARM architectures. Windows 8 will run on both PC and mobile devices. The research firm believes Windows 8 will create a huge ecosystem of devices from smartphones to desktops for app developers to target. Juniper Research expects Microsoft to gain market share in the tablet space, as it replaces the non-tablet-optimized Windows 7. And, with Nokia (NOK) transitioning its existing (smartphone) and new products (likely to include a tablet) to Microsoft’s platform, the Finnish giant will be fighting back after spending several years losing market share to Google (GOOG) Android and Apple iOS devices.
2012 to see High Profile Malware Attacks on Mobile Devices. There have been many malware attacks targeted at mobile devices. However, these attacks have been relatively small-scale. This is unlikely to continue. Cyber-criminals will not be able to pass up the opportunity that consumer smartphones and tablets will present. Juniper Research anticipates that 2012 will see several high-profile, international attacks on various mobile OSs. Consumers at large must bed aware of the pressing need to protect their smart devices by installing security software.
Cloud Mobility to Drive Collaborative Communications – The BYOD trend driven by the consumerization of enterprise IT will increase according to the research firm. Specifically, Juniper Research believes that 2012 will see a substantial increase in the number of enterprises moving to develop and deploy mobile-centric, social business strategies.
Other predictions from Juniper Research include:
- The London 2012 Olympics will boost mobile advertising and M-Gambling, and kickstart NFC.
- Mobile Coupons to drive the mCommerce market despite economic stagnation.
- MEMsaccelerometers and gyroscopes to transform the sensor market for mobile devices.
- Social Gaming will become a major mobile play with the introduction of synchronous gaming.
- Online, Mobile and Physical will begin to fuse into one retail market.
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I’ll come back to these predictions at the end of the year and see which predictions were on target or off in space somewhere.
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Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.
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