The metaverse is a vision of what the tech bros (think biased stakeholders with a personal interest in the success of the metaverse Sam Bankman-Fried and Elon Musk) want the next iteration of the internet to be. Their vision of the metaverse is a collection of interconnected virtual worlds. The virtual worlds are shared immersive, persistent, 3D virtual spaces. In this metaverse, they believe humans can experience life in ways they could not in the physical world (of course for money). McKinsey predicts that the metaverse can generate up to $5 trillion by 2030.
The Verge has a more cynical vision. The “metaverse” lets companies dodge negative baggage associated with social media. “As long as you can make technology seem fresh and new and cool, you can avoid regulation,” researcher Joan Donovan told The Washington Post. “You can run defense on that for several years before the government can catch up.”
The Metaverse requires improvements
Despite the media hype that the metaverse has received, it still requires improvements to become a reality. A recent survey by network gear maker Ciena found that 71% of professionals can see the metaverse becoming part of existing work practices in the next two years. The study also found that businesses see problems getting into the metaverse. They stated “... unreliable network performance and associated costs were cited as the top concerns holding organizations back …” Daniel Pimental, from the University of Oregon, explains that advances in several technologies are needed to make the metaverse real. He explained, “… advancements in artificial intelligence – computer vision – blockchain technology, and increased bandwidth with 5G connectivity, will form the foundation…“
It needs better networks
Our current networks won’t work. They take too long to deliver data. Dan Rampton of Meta says the metaverse experience will need a customer latency of less than 20 milliseconds. Latency is the delay when moving data from one place to another. In the metaverse, latency is the total delay of signal between the user and the data center that is controlling the metaverse experience. Are you old enough to remember the dreaded “buffering” screen? PCMag found that the best 5G latency in 2022 ranged from 39 – 47 milliseconds from the major carriers. Doug Dawson put the 10-20 millisecond latency into context.
- Transmission delay is the time required to get packets from a customer to be ready to route to the Internet. He cites some of his clients who say that the latency on their fiber network typically ranges between 4 and 8 milliseconds. Cable systems are slower and can approach the 20 ms limit. Older technologies like DSL have much larger latencies. Low-orbit satellite networks, will not be fast enough to meet the 20 ms goal established by Meta. Some wireless technologies also have low latency as long as there aren’t multiple hops between a customer and the core.
- The Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance says that 5G networks should offer 10ms latency in general.
- Processing delay is the time required by the originating ISP to sort between all of the packets received from users and route each appropriately.
- Propagation delay is due to the distance a signal travels. It takes a lot longer for a signal to travel from Tokyo to Baltimore than it takes to travel from Baltimore and Washington DC.
- Queuing delays are the time required at the terminating end of the transmission. Since a metaverse connection is almost certainly going to be hosted at a data center, this is the time it takes to receive and appropriately route the signal to the right place in the data center.
The Metaverse needs to be better
The metaverse’s virtual environments will require high-end computers, gaming consoles, and VR headsets. These can be expensive. In 2021, Bill Gates noted that most people don’t have VR goggles and motion capture gloves to accurately represent their expression, body language, and the quality of their voice. Harvard‘s Eileen McGivney writes:
The hardware that is currently used to access metaverse experiences, like VR headsets, are not affordable and are difficult to wear for many people from groups who are underrepresented in the technology industry.
People with mobility issues will find navigating a real-time 3D avatar in the metaverse frustrating. Ms. McGivney offers some examples like people with limited mobility in their hands who will struggle with controllers. Others might have difficulty if they wear glasses. Also, most current headsets can’t be worn over head coverings or many hairstyles, like religious headscarves and natural Black hairstyles.
The metaverse is expensive
Acquiring the hardware to get on the metaverse can be expensive. Head-mounted devices (HMDs), can range from a DIY Google Cardboard that requires the user to provide a mobile phone to the Meta Quest 2 – formally known as Oculus Quest 2 which costs $1500. Mid-range devices are pricey, the HTC Vive costs $569, and the Valve Index VR costs $999.
There is no search engine in the metaverse. There is no way to find out more about what the content creators are sending you. The cost of creating content for the metaverse will keep many from presenting information that the big content creators don’t want out there. The cost to develop a metaverse social app is estimated to cost $25,000-$400,000 according to the marketing firm Appinventiv.
Interoperability
There is no unified metaverse. Companies are developing their vision of the metaverse in a vacuum. Major players are developing their own technology for the metaverse.
- Amazon (AMZN),
- Apple (AAPL),
- Decentraland (MANA),
- Epic Games,
- Meta (FB),
- Microsoft (MSFT),
- NVIDIA (NVDA),
- Roblox Corporation (RBLX),
- The Sandbox (SAND),
- Snapchat (SNAP), and
- Unity Software (U).
Then there’s the need for interoperability. Interoperability will allow you to take virtual items like clothes or money from one platform to another. Many experts believe this is vital for the metaverse to work. Most VR software is based on a “virtual world generator,” which is from a specific VR headset vendor. This kit provides the basic programs, drivers, data, and graphic-rendering libraries. There will be legal and commercial challenges too, apart from figuring out who will act as the police in the metaverse.
Cybersickness
There are real-world concerns about physical and mental health in the metaverse. There are physical risks from tripping or falling while wearing metaverse headsets. But people are also reporting symptoms of “cybersickness.” Cybersickness is described as unpleasant symptoms caused by being in the metaverse. Symptoms include:
- Nausea (sweating, difficulty concentrating, stomach awareness),
- Oculomotor disturbance (headache, eyestrain, blurred vision), and
- Disorientation (dizziness with open and closed eyes, vertigo).
These are caused by the delay between actual head movements and the generated image.
Mental health risks
There are also mental health risks. Because VR provides a much more realistic experience than watching something on a computer screen, the emotional and mental impacts are more intense. Plus, all the downsides of the current internet like violent pornography, the black market, sex trafficking, and criminal activities are magnified in VR. Finally, people who are immersed in digital worlds often are doing so at the expense of exercising, breathing fresh air, and socializing physically.
The metaverse must be private
Despite the promise of the metaverse, there remain risks. As Charlie Bell, Microsoft’s executive vice president of security pointed out in a recent blog post: “The problems of yesterday’s and today’s internet—impersonation, attempts to steal credentials, social engineering, nation-state espionage, inevitable vulnerabilities—will be with us in the metaverse.” Harvard’s McGivney concurs, “Many of these technologies are also designed in a commercial environment that prioritizes profit over things like data privacy…“
The metaverse is being developed by corporations whose business
models rely on collecting an increasingly detailed and wide range of data on every user. The technologies can track people’s
movements (e.g., movement, eye tracking) and emotions. The data collection will create a “motion signature.” A motion signature will connect some tracking data to a name, for example, now tracking data in many other places are attached to the same name. This increases the effectiveness of threats based on the inference of protected health information from tracking data.
Is that your boss
Microsoft warns that in the metaverse, fraud, and phishing attacks targeting your identity could come from a familiar face – literally. A metaverse attacker can create an avatar who impersonates a coworker, or a teller in a virtual bank lobby asking for your information. It could be an impersonation of your CEO inviting you to a meeting in a malicious virtual conference room.
rb-
T
he dystopian vision of a future where we are constantly connected to the metaverse to feel good is looming. Elon Musk’s implanted brain-machine interface Neuralink, can link the metaverse directly to a user’s mind which can cause the release of dopamine. Research shows that the brain may eventually begin to rely on that experience to release dopamine and feel good. As a result, people can become addicted to the metaverse to feel “normal.”
I agree with Scientific American. Given the world’s unpredictability, I have a hard time ruling out the possibility that an unholy alliance of big tech and the military will foist an implant-enabled metaverse on us. After all, as the real world gets scarier, the metaverse might become more and more appealing. In our frightening future, the metaverse, not religion, might serve as the opiate of the masses.
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Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.