Bach Seat

Gartner VP David Cearley described their top ten strategic technology trends for 2012 to attendees of the Gartner Symposium IT/Expo. Gartner (IT) defines a strategic technology as one with the potential for significant impact on the enterprise in the next three years. Here are Gartner’s top strategic technologies for 2012.

Media tablets and beyond: Bring-your-own-technology (BYOT) at work has become the norm, not the exception.  By 2015 tablet shipments will reach around 50% of laptop shipments and Windows 8 will likely be in third place behind Google‘s (GOOG) Android and Apple’s (AAPL) iOS. The net result is that Microsoft‘s (MSFT) share of the client platform, be it PC, tablet, or smartphone, will likely be reduced to 60% and it could fall below 50%, Mr. Cearley says.

The implication for IT is that the era of PC dominance with Windows as the single platform will be replaced with a post-PC era where Windows is one of a variety of environments IT will need to support. Gartner says it expects iOS/Android will dominate the market with 80% of tablets shipped by 2015. IT leaders need a managed diversity program to address multiple form factors, as well as employees bringing their own smartphones and tablet devices into the workplace.

Mobile-Centric Applications and Interfaces. User interfaces with windows, icons, menus and pointers which have been in place for more than 20 years are changing. The UI will be replaced by mobile-centric interfaces emphasizing touch, gesture, search, voice, and video. Applications themselves are likely to shift to more focused and simple apps that can be assembled into more complex solutions. By 2015 half the applications that would be written as native apps in 2011 will instead be delivered as Web apps.

Internet of Things: The Internet of Things (IoT) describes pervasive computing where cameras, sensors, microphones, image recognition, everything, is now part of the environment. In addition, increasingly intelligent devices create issues such as privacy concerns. Gartner says. Drivers of the IoT are:

• Near Field Communication (NFC) payments allows users to make payments by waving their mobile phone in front of a compatible reader.
• Embedded sensors which detect and communicate changes are being built into an increasing number of places and objects.
• Image Recognition technologies identify objects, people, buildings, places logos, etc. that has value to consumers and enterprises.

App Stores and Marketplaces: Application stores by Apple and Android provide marketplaces where hundreds of thousands of applications are available to mobile users. Gartner forecasts that by 2014, there will be more than 70 billion mobile application downloads from app stores every year with an enterprise focus. With enterprise app stores, the role of IT shifts from that of a centralized planner to a market manager providing governance and brokerage services to users and potentially an ecosystem to support entrepreneurs. Enterprises should use a managed diversity approach to focus on app store efforts and segment apps by risk and value.

Big Data: The size, complexity of formats, and speed of delivery exceed the capabilities of traditional data management technologies; Gartner says it requires the use of new technologies simply to manage the volume alone. One major implication of big data is that in the future users will not be able to put all useful information into a single data warehouse. Logical data warehouses bringing together information from multiple sources as needed will replace the single data warehouse model.

Cloud Computing: This topic is still an important trend. It will become the next-generation battleground for the likes of Google and Amazon (AMZN). Going forward, enterprise IT will be concerned with developing hybrid private/public cloud apps, improving security and governance, Mr. Cearley says. While the market remains in its early stages in 2011 and 2012, it will see the full range of large enterprise providers fully engaged in delivering a range of offerings to build cloud environments and deliver cloud services. Oracle (ORCL), IBM (IBM), and SAP (SAP) all have major initiatives to deliver a broader range of cloud services over the next two years. As Microsoft continues to expand its cloud offering, and these traditional enterprise players expand offerings, users will see competition heat up and enterprise-level cloud services increase.

Enterprises are moving from trying to understand the cloud to making decisions on selected workloads to implement on cloud services and where they need to build out private clouds. Hybrid cloud computing which brings together external public cloud services and internal private cloud services, as well as the capabilities to secure, manage and govern the entire cloud spectrum will be a major focus for 2012. From a security perspective, new certification programs will be ready for the initial trial, setting the stage for more secure cloud computing. On the private cloud front, IT will be challenged to bring operations and development groups closer together using “DevOps” concepts in order to approach the speed and efficiencies of public cloud service providers.

Other key predictions Gartner had included:

• Contextual and Social User Experience: Context-aware computing uses information about an end-user to improve the quality of interaction and anticipates the user’s needs and proactively serves up the customized content. By 2015, 40% of the world’s smartphone users will opt in to context service providers that track their activities with Google, Microsoft, Nokia (NOK), and Apple continuously tracking daily activities Mr.Cearley says.

• The growing use of flash memory for In-Memory Computing is a long-term technology trend that could have a disruptive impact comparable to that of cloud computing.

• The adoption of Extreme Low-Energy Servers built on low-power processors typically used in mobile devices will increase for non-compute intensive workloads or delivery of static objects to a website. Gartner says that 10%-15% of enterprise workloads are good for this.

• Next-Generation Analytics Gartner says over the next three years, analytics will mature from structured and simple data analyzed by individuals to the analysis of complex information of many types (text, video, etc.) from many systems.

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Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.