Tag Archive for GOOG

Smartphone Sales to Pass PC’s in 2012

Smartphone Sales to Pass PC's in 2012Wall Street investment firm Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2012 smartphone sales will be more than 450 million units, surpassing PC and laptop sales. Mary Meeker called “Queen of the Net” by Barron’s during the run up to the dot-bomb, made the prediction during her “State of the Internet” presentation at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco.

The Washington Post reports that Ms. Meeker further projected that by 2013, smartphone sales will approach 650 million units. Meeker spoke about growth in the smartphone market and its link to social networking sites, as well as about Internet video and advertising.

Ms. Meeker, says to watch out for mobile growth in China. The rehabilitated dot-bomb cheerleader says that China’s population of smartphone users is relatively nascent, with 14.5 million 3G users, or two percent of the population. That compares with 37 million in the United States. But that population grew by 941 percent in the third quarter compared with one year ago.

Techcrunch points out that Ms. Meeker’s predictions are reasonable. Smartphones are cheaper and phones, in general, are more ubiquitous. To the extent that all phones are becoming smartphones, they will be much more accessible and portable and than PCs (laptops included). They are certainly becoming just as capable, at least as far as surfing the Web is concerned, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of apps available for platforms like the Apple (AAPL) iPhone, Google (GOOG) Android, and Research In Motion’s (RIMM) Blackberry.

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Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedInFacebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.

Terabit Ethernet Developing

Terabit Ethernet DevelopingResearchers at the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) are working on the next evolution of Ethernet – Terabit Ethernet. UCSB Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering Dan Blumenthal told LightReading that the goal of the recently created Terabit Optical Ethernet Center (TOEC), is to create Terabit Ethernet (TbE) which runs at 1 trillion bits per second by 2015 and to follow it up with 100Tbit/s Ethernet by 2020.

Professor Blumenthal explained to LightReading that he wants the TOEC and its partners to produce something the industry can use, not a one-time lab experiment that only works with duct tape and glue. “We’re not talking about lab hero experiments,” Blumenthal told LightReading. The real-world focus of TOEC has helped attract partners like  Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), Rockwell Collins Inc., and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) to help with the research. I wrote about Intel’s TBPS efforts back in July.

Terabit Ethernet is hard

TOEC could probably use the help because developing TbE is looking like no simple task according to LightReading. Bob Metcalfe, Ethernet’s creator, and now a Polaris Venture Partners partner, speculated two years ago that a terabit standard might need a rethinking of everything, even the fiber itself.

Based on current UCSB research, professor Blumenthal speculates that TbE  may include:

  • Photonic integrated circuits (PICs) are a must.
  • Coherent receivers, but at a scale well beyond what’s being used for 100Gbit/s Ethernet. A likely candidate is 1,024-QAM: quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) transmitting 10 bits per symbol, a scheme likely to require 100GHz electronics.
  • To make that coherent receiver energy-efficient, TOEC is “trying to move a lot of what’s in the digital signal processor into the optics,” Blumenthal says.
  • New materials for fiber-optics aren’t out of the question. “We won’t start out with that, but it’ll move in that direction,” Blumenthal says.
  • Other items on the TOEC shopping list include optical phase-locked loops, new semiconductor optical amplifiers (SOAs), and methods for drastically lowering on-chip optical losses.

The questions go beyond the optical layer. To make operations more synchronous padding and frame delineation were added to 10Gbit/s and 100Gbit/s Ethernet, Blumenthal pointed out. “Do we keep doing that? Or do we go purely asynchronous? We don’t know yet. …Once you put the word ‘Ethernet’ in there, it’s not about just transmission. It’s about being backward-compatible. That’s the beauty of Ethernet. We can’t lose that essence.

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The need for TbE is real (I first wrote about Intel’s TbE efforts here) and being driven by video. More video is already riding over existing networks. “We’re going to need much faster networking to handle the explosion in Internet traffic and support new large-scale applications like cloud computing,” Professor Blumenthal told Physorg. Stuart Elby, Vice President of Network Architecture for Verizon told Physorg, “Based on current traffic growth, it’s clear that 1 Terabit per second trunks will be needed in the near future.”

Facebook is already looking at TbE in their data centers. PCWorld reports that at the Ethernet Alliance‘s Technology Exploration Forum, Donn Lee, a Facebook Engineer said, “… there is already a need for 1 terabit.” Facebook has so many servers, and those servers can process data so fast, that they could fill 64 Terabit Ethernet pipes in the backbone of one data center, Lee said.

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Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedInFacebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.

Google Searches for Power on Seabed

Google Searches for Power on Seabed Google (GOOG) is investing in an undersea power cable project linking offshore wind farms with energy grids along the Mid-Atlantic region.  Known as the Atlantic Wind Connection backbone, the cable will stretch 350 miles off the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to Virginia. The cable will collect power from multiple offshore wind farms and deliver it via the cables to the on-shore grid. The AWC backbone will be able to tap into 6000 megawatts of offshore generation, enough to serve about 1.9 million homes according to reports.

Atlantic Wind Connection backboneGoogle, will take a 37.5% stake in the project. “We’re willing to take calculated risks on early-stage ideas and projects that can have dramatic impacts while offering attractive returns,” Rick Needham, green business operations director, wrote on the Google official blog.  Other investors in the project include U.S.-based Good Energies which invests in energy projects with a 37.5% equity stake, Japan’s Marubeni Corporation will have a 15% stake. Atlantic Grid Development LLC, a company formed to develop the project whose shareholders include independent transmission company Trans-Elect, will have 10%.

Project cots Google billions

Businessweek says the first phase of the project, which the developers aim to complete by early 2016, would run about 150 miles and cost between $1.7 billion and $1.8 billion. The second phase to complete the 350-mile line could be finished by 2020, Bob Mitchell, chief executive officer of Trans-Elect, told reporters telephone interview. The New York Times reports the project will cost $5 billion total in total. Reports are that Google and Good Energies’ initial investment is about $200 million each for the first phase of the project.

Google logoThe partners believe that the mid-Atlantic region’s shallow waters will make it easier to install turbines 10-15 miles offshore, almost out of sight from land. Without it, offshore wind developers would be forced to build individual radial transmission lines from each offshore wind project to the shore, Needham claimed.  “This system will act as a superhighway for clean energy,” Mr. Needham wrote, adding that the proposed project could remove “a major barrier to scaling up offshore wind“. If successful, the AWC project will help to relieve grid congestion and boost transmission capacity in a key market. Google believes that the move into alternative energy is consistent with the company’s goal of promoting renewable energy.

Spray towers over the 57-foot-tall Ludington Lighthouse in Michigan as a storm packing winds of up to 81 mph howled across the Midwest and South on Tuesday, Oct. 26. Jeff Kiessel, Ludington Daily News

This isn’t the first time Google has dipped its toe in the spreading pool of wind power. The search giant agreed to buy 114 megawatts of clean energy from an Iowa wind farm to power its data centers. Google also invested nearly 40 million in two wind farms.

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Not that I really want to bet against Google, but the IEEE reports that Michigan has an offshore potential of 100 GW, nearly double that of  Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey. Perhaps Google co-founder and East Lansing native Larry Page remembers winters in Michigan and thinks that the moving ice sheets on the lakes could damage a tower.

Michigan Offshore Wind Speeds

Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedInFacebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.

Banks & Bosses Use Social Media to Assess Risk

Updated 10-22-10 – GigaOm has a post about Rapleaf here.

If you’re among the 67% of the global online population which Nielsen Online says uses social media networks to stay in touch with friends, grow their business, or just have fun then your information is for sale to banks, insurance companies, employers, and the government. Some banks are turning to social media analytics firms to enhance their credit-check procedures.

Banks are now looking at an applicant’s social media profile, behavior, and associations on sites like Facebook (FB), Twitter, and MySpace according to a recent article on the banking industry site CreditCards.com. The banker’s theory is that people run with folks who share their values and behavior. If your Facebook friends are deadbeats, the banks theorize you are a deadbeat also. These assumptions may make it harder to get a credit card or mortgage, according to CreditCards.com.

Many banks are now outsourcing their social network data mining operations to firms such as Rapleaf. Rapleaf, is a San Francisco, CA-based company that specializes in social media monitoring. According to CreditCard.com, Rapleaf compiles everything you and your network do – including status updates, “tweets,” joining online clubs, linking a Web site or posting a comment on a blog or news Web site. These firms turn the conversations into consumer profiles called social graphs. Social graphs give companies insight into behavior patterns: what you like and dislike, want and don’t want, do well and do poorly.

Banks & Bosses Use Social Media to Assess RiskIn the article, Rapleaf characterizes its social network data mining operations as “a unique way to improve customer experience by whitelisting customers based on their social circles and friend relationships.”  Since the firm uses data to “whitelist” people, it may also very easily be used to “blacklist” people and deny them a credit card or a job. “Who you hang around with has empirical implications with how you behave,” Joel Jewitt, Rapleaf’s vice president of business development told FastCompany.

“It’s a marketing trend as opposed to a credit score trend,” says Jewitt.  Despite his assurances, Rapleaf’s Web site suggests that clients “use friend networks to enhance … credit scoring” according to FastCompany. Jesse Torres, president, and CEO of Pan American Bank in Los Angeles told CreditCards.com that online information aggregators fill a need within the banking community. “They’re able to scour the social media universe. They are constantly listening and reporting back.”

The bankers are protecting their bottom line, “credit card companies have been stung very hard during this downturn, and they’re going to work that much harder to avoid extending credit…,” Ken Clark, author of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Boosting Your Financial IQ told CreditCards.com. Rob Garcia, senior director of product strategy at The Lending Club, a peer-to-peer lender, says his firm uses multiple sources of “social information collateral” for its decision-making processes “It’s a wealth of information about a person,” says Garcia.

Not everyone in the industry is data mining social networks. “It’s difficult to make a judgment about an individual’s credit based on the people around them,” says Gregory Meyer, community relations manager for Meriwest Credit Union in San José, CA.  Meriwest only assesses credit reports and application data to make lending decisions. “[Social media] is a great way to keep up with what my 10-year-old nephew is up to, but it doesn’t have a place in the credit process.”

What you divulge can have an unintended impact. “We’ve seen this with applicants not getting jobs and employees getting fired for their Facebook and Twitter-based escapades,” financial personality Clark told CreditCards.com, “so we shouldn’t imagine this to be any different.” There are steps to take to guard your privacy. “I think it is crucial that everyone visit the privacy notices for the sites they use, read them, and change their settings to limit who can see their information,” says Clark. “For example, on Facebook, you can change your privacy settings so that only your acknowledged friends can see the majority of your information.” You can also enable “private filtering” on your browser. Do so and your activity will be entirely out of the Web profiling system.

Scott Stevenson, president, and CEO of EliminateIDTheft.com told CreditCards.com people should:

  1. Don’t accept invitations until you check the profile out first.
  2. Be acutely aware of what you write. Don’t make public anything you don’t want public.
  3. Take an annual inventory of all your social networking sites and delete people and information that can potentially damage you in the eyes of a creditor or employer.

Rapleaf offers a service to discover your online footprint and see what others might see on your social graph. Google (GOOG) offers a similar tool, the Google Privacy Dashboard. which presents an overview of the accounts and information you are connected with through Google. Take advantage of tools like these to check your own online reputation. What you don’t know can hurt you. Rapleaf’s Jewitt reminds users that, “The custodian of the information is you.”

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There is nothing illegal about social network data mining banks and firms like Rapleaf do. Facebook and the other social networks are legal commercial enterprises that openly broker user data for exactly these kinds of purposes. People freely put information on Facebook with the full knowledge that it will become permanent parts of the public Internet record. Users need to know about this kind of data mining for two reasons. First, the stakes are high. It’s about getting access to credit that might be necessary for your family or business or even getting your next job.

Second, data mining gives the lenders insights into relationships that are unknown to and often completely out of the control of the applicant. Maybe being a Facebook fan of NASCAR says something in the sum about your socioeconomic status and your creditworthiness or employability, according to some second-order derivative analysis of millions of data records.

The asymmetry in the relationship between data-driven marketers and consumers is structural and permanent. Institutions like banks (and, potentially, insurance companies, employers, and the government) will use it to gain an advantage, because that’s what they do.

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Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedInFacebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.

Microsoft Founder Sues GOOG, FB and AAPL

Microsoft Founder Sues GOOG, FB and AAPL– Updated 12-13-10 – Physorg is reporting that a U.S. district judge tossed out the patent infringement lawsuit filed by Interval Licensing owned by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. The judge ruled that the suit failed to specify devices or products violating patents at issue in the case. A spokesman for Allen dismissed the ruling as a procedural matter and said that an amended complaint will be filed addressing the judge’s concern.

– Updated – Google responded to the suit by stating in court documents  “Interval’s complaint is so devoid of any facts to support its infringement contentions that it is impossible for Google to reasonably prepare a defense.” According to VON | xchange Apple agreed and called on judges to “insist upon some specificity” before proceeding.

The UK’s Guardian is reporting that eleven major Internet companies including AOL, Apple, eBay, Facebook, Google, Netflix, Office Depot, OfficeMax, Staples, Yahoo, and YouTube are being sued by Interval Licensing. The firm, lead by ex-Microsoft founder Paul Allen is suing for alleged infringement of patents that relate to e-commerce and search. A copy of the complaint is available here (PDF). Notably absent from the list are Microsoft and Amazon.com. Amazon, the Seattle e-commerce giant just moved into a new headquarters campus developed by Allen’s Vulcan Inc. Interval is seeking damages and the end of the infringement. Among the patents being contested are:

  • 6,263,507: “Browser for use in navigating a body of information, with particular  application to browsing information represented by audio data.”
  • 6,034,652 & 6,788,314 (really the same patent, involving continuations): “Attention manager for occupying the peripheral attention of a person in the vicinity of a display device.”
  • 6,757,682: “Alerting users to items of current interest”
  • TechFlash has a deeper analysis of these patents.

Microsoft founder Paul AllenGoogle and Facebook told the Guardian they will fight the accusations by Interval. “This lawsuit against some of America’s most innovative companies reflects an unfortunate trend of people trying to compete in the courtroom instead of the marketplace,” a Google spokesperson said in an emailed statement to the Guardian. “Innovation – not litigation – is the way to bring to market the kinds of products and services that benefit  millions of people around the world.” Facebook spokesperson Andrew Noyes  said: “We believe this suit is completely without merit and we will fight it vigorously.”

The Guardian reports that these claims have led to accusations by some observers that Allen, who is worth a reported $13.5bn is acting as a “patent troll” – suing active companies via patents obtained by now-defunct or inactive companies which are not actively developing technology.  However, David Postman, an Interval official, defended the lawsuit as necessary to protect its investment in innovation.”We are not asserting patents that other companies have filed, nor are we buying patents originally assigned to someone else,” he told the Guardian. “These are patents developed by and for Interval.” Allen is not a named inventor on any of the patents according to Bloomberg.

Allen co-founded Interval Research in 1992 to develop communications and computer technology. The firm was reportedly designed to be a pure research institute “done right” which would replicate Xerox PARC, but that it would actually commercialize the amazing ideas. At its largest, it employed more than 110 scientists and engineers, and filed patents covering internet search and display innovations, according to the lawsuit. Interval Research officially closed in April 2000 when its 300+ patents were taken over by Interval Licensing.

Apparently, Allen has support from another tech founder. TechDirt reports that Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak comes out in favor of “patent trolls” and patent holders suing companies who actually innovate. Woz told Bloomberg TV that patents somehow help out the small guy (Paul Allen, the 37th-richest person in the world?):

I think this lawsuit represents the idea that hey, patents, individual inventors, they don’t have the funds to go up against big companies. So he’s sorta representing some original investors. And I’m not at all against the idea of patent trolls.

The Bloomberg interviewer points out that Paul Allen is not the inventor and there’s no sign that the inventors on these patents would actually get any of the money should Allen succeed. Woz says that Allen “represents inventors.” According to TechDirt Woz seems uninformed about the patent world today. For example, the interviewer notes that dealing with patents has become a “cost of doing business” and Woz seems to think that’s a good thing:

Every tech company is very aware that patents are really the heart of our innovation and invention system and (a) that you have to have your own patent position and you gotta be aware that there might be others. And, yes, you might be infringing. It’s very awkward, because some patents are so general. It’s hard to say how they’ll be interpreted. There’s a lot of ambiguity in the system.

Apple co-founder Steve WozniakTechDirt notes the irony that in Woz’s autobiography iWoz, he talked about how much of a success Apple was without relying on patents at the beginning.

Patents on software and business processes have become a lightning rod issue for web companies. They claim that patents act as a financial drag on innovation and that the US Patent Office (USPTO) is especially poor at examining patent claims for “prior art” which would disqualify them, or that it awards patents on needlessly wide claims which mean that it is almost impossible for companies to use accepted web technologies without accidentally infringing on them.

One of the most notable was Amazon’s 1997 patent for its “1-Click” shopping system, which was, accepted and then rejected and finally passed by the USPTO in March 2010. Amazon has licensed the technology to Apple, among others. Other infamous software patent abuses include:

  • British Telecom attempted to claim a patent on the hyperlink; its claim collapsed in 2002 on the basis that the patent referred to a “central computer” – which the internet does not have.
  • SCO sued IBM, Red Hat, Novell. AutoZone and DaimlerChrysler for claimed patents rights that would cover significant parts of the free Linux operating system.

 

Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedInFacebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.