Bach Seat

Forrester Report Casts Doubt on iPad Competitors

The New York Times cites a recent Forrester (FORR) report on the state and near future of the tablet marketplace titled “iPad Challengers Have Flawed Product Strategies.”

The report’s main conclusion was that Apple’s (AAPL) iPad competitors have not addressed pricing, distribution, and product differentiation adequately to make a case to consumers.

1. The new tablets are too expensive. Apple has, unexpectedly, kept iPad prices comparatively low. The Motorola (MSI) Xoom starts at $100 more than the iPad and Samsung’s Galaxy Tab can be had for $250, but that does not include a two-year contract with a mobile carrier. Someone should be coming in to undercut this market, but that has proved harder than it looks.
2. The wrong stores are selling tablets. Forrester’s research shows that one of the least desirable places to buy a tablet is at a cellphone store. But many tablet makers continue to rely on wireless carriers as a primary retail channel, which Forrester’s report concludes is a bad bet.
3. The new tablets are not distinguished enough.  The average user does not care about specs because it’s about the apps that run on these toys.
4. The new tablets are not Windows. Forrester’s survey said the number one operating system people want on a tablet is Windows. If Microsoft (MSFT) is not going to release a true tablet-ready OS until late-summer 2012, those who want a Windows tablet may have to wait for two generations of tablets.

Forrester speculates that an Amazon (AMZN) tablet could change the market. Amazon could offer more attractive terms to media partners than Apple. It already has scads of credit-card numbers for easy one-click app purchases. It has media offerings like streaming video. It now has some experience designing, marketing, and selling its own hardware with the Kindle.

Cisco Cius

Does anyone remember Cisco’s Cius? In case you don’t No Jitter has an article from June 2010 by Zeus Kerravala of the Yankee Group. The Cius was purported to be a tablet that can dock into a base station and can act as a video phone. When undocked the device operates like a tablet computer that can be carried around and shared between workers.

Mr. Kerravala says the Cius tablet isn’t really meant to be a replacement for a laptop or an Apple (AAPL) iPad type of tablet. It’s a communications-centric tablet that can provide an easy interface into vertically specific applications, make videoconferencing portable and create a new way for people to interact with one another. The Cius will be centered on visual communications and not productivity applications like word processing and spreadsheets.

The Cius uses  Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system, perhaps to attract developers. The article says the Cisco (CSCO) of a few years ago would have chosen to build its own interface. Android is a key to the success of Cius. The likelihood of developers building applications for an Android-based Cisco device is higher than developers creating applications for a Cisco operating system.

According to the article, the Cius is to be priced under $1,000, comparable to a high-end Cisco IP phone. While no network operator partners were announced at the time, Cisco said that the device was WiFi, 3G, and 4G capable.

Are the End Days Nearing for PCs (and Macs)

GigaOm‘s Ryan Kim recently wrote that the glory days of the PCs are fading with the rise of more nimble smartphones and tablets. Wi-Fi provider JiWire confirmed this trend over the Christmas holidays. JiWire, which operates 35,000 public Wi-Fi hot-spots in the U.S., saw new iPad connections increase by 33.8 percent and new Android (GOOG) users were up 47.9 percent while new Mac users were down 28.1 percent and new PC connections were down 12 percent over the Christmas holidays. Mr. Kim writes that this trend marks people’s dependence on computers is waning as they find more utility and portability in smartphones and tablets.

This trend is shaking up the computer world according to GigaOm. Gartner (IT) recently predicted that PC sales would decline 10% in the face of increased tablet sales. And as mobile networks ramp up to 4G and Wi-Fi usage grows, it’s only fueling the interest in mobile devices. This is a major shift that is forcing all the big players to adjust. The author points out that:

• Microsoft (MSFT) re-entered the smartphone game at CES 2011 with Windows Phone 7 with Windows OS on ARM (ARMH) designed chips.
• Intel (INTC) is working hard to get its chips to run on mobile devices though it’s still an uphill battle displacing ARM-designed chips.
• HP (HPQ) bought Palm last year and is prepping a line of WebOS tablets and smartphones.

Apple (AAPL) is forcing these changes on the industry according to Mr. Kim. the iPhone and the iPad made mobile computing more user-friendly. Apple CEO Steve Jobs predicted that overall PC usage would decline and suggested that lightweight devices like the iPad would do most of the tasks people needed. GigaOm says that companies that embrace this new reality, are the ones best positioned for the future. The new iFuture means PC manufacturers will have to accept that the switch to mobile devices may come at the cost of traditional computer sales. The article concludes that manufacturers can let someone else lure their PC customers away with a tablet or smartphone or they can build one themselves.

Tablets Are Hammering The Notebook Market: Acer Sales Off 10%

The BusinessInsider reports that Acer (ACEIY) has warned that its 2011 Q1 sales will be off 10%. The Taiwanese PC maker is blaming Apple’s iPad and it tablet cousins for devastating its key netbook business.

Related articles

• A Market for iPads, Not for Tablets (pcworld.com)

Ralph Bach has been in IT long enough to know better and has blogged from his Bach Seat about IT, careers, and anything else that catches his attention since 2005. You can follow him on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. Email the Bach Seat here.